The unpredictable Oscar season is back, and the drama continues.
Recently, “Anora” dominated the PGA and DGA Awards, but the BAFTAs added a twist with their recent results. Historically, the BAFTAs have been known to either forecast the outcome of the Oscars accurately or lead voters astray.
In 2024, every BAFTA winner, aside from visual effects, eventually took home the Oscar, making it a standout year in predictive accuracy. However, the previous year saw a different story as only editor Paul Rogers from “Everything Everywhere All at Once” secured dual wins at the BAFTAs and the Oscars. With Oscar voting concluding on February 18, it’s time to analyze the implications of the BAFTA outcomes on Hollywood’s leading night.
Can “Conclave” achieve Best Picture upset?
“Conclave,” directed by Edward Berger, made headlines as it bagged the BAFTA for Best Film, along with awards for adapted screenplay, editing, and outstanding British film. This positions the religious thriller as a formidable contender against "Anora."
However, there is a catch: “Conclave” did not receive a director nomination at the Oscars, a significant barrier historically. Its best-case scenario would mirror the 2012 “Argo” victory, winning screenplay, editing, and picture. It’s challenging but not out of the realm of possibility. Additionally, there’s an interesting statistic regarding Ralph Fiennes: each time he’s been nominated for an Oscar, his film has won Best Picture. If “Conclave” prevails, Fiennes would break this record, being credited in four Best Picture wins.
Conversely, “Anora” boasts an impressive array of wins, including the DGA, PGA, Critics Choice, and WGA, a combination that has historically yielded only one failure in Oscar history.
Thus, is the BAFTA victory a hint at a potential "Conclave" win, or merely a case of British preference prior to the Oscars?
Did Mikey Madison disrupt the Best Actress race?
In a surprising twist, Mikey Madison clinched the Best Actress award from BAFTA for her role in “Anora,” defeating the favored Demi Moore. This makes Madison the youngest winner since Scarlett Johansson in 2003.
What does this evolution mean for the Oscars? There are three possible scenarios:
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The impact is negligible if Demi Moore secures a SAG win, creating a repeat of past surprises where BAFTA winners did not translate to Oscar wins.
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Madison could dominate the awards circuit similarly to Frances McDormand with "Nomadland" after a strong precursor showing.
- The competition remains fierce, especially if SAG decides to honor a different nominee unexpectedly.
It’s worth noting that no Best Actress winner since 1977 has won the Oscar without their film also taking home Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay. Thus, Madison’s win adds intrigue to the narrative.
What’s the scoop on Original Screenplay?
BAFTA’s recognition for Kieran Culkin in "A Real Pain" was anticipated, but a notable upset occurred when "Anora" lost in the Original Screenplay category, not to the Critics Choice winner but to Jesse Eisenberg’s film.
This disparity among major precursor wins highlights the unpredictable nature of this year’s competition, making the Best Picture win a potential tie-breaker.
Two potential outcomes could emerge:
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If “Anora” wins Best Picture, it could likely also seize the Screenplay award.
- If “Conclave” takes Best Picture, it could indicate that “Anora” is more vulnerable than anticipated, allowing other contenders some breathing room.
Are Brody, Culkin, and Saldaña assured Oscar wins?
With wins at the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA, Adrien Brody, Kieran Culkin, and Zoe Saldaña appear to be frontrunners. If any of them also claim the SAG award, historical trends favor them for the Oscar.
However, SAG’s selections can often lead to surprise winners, and it’s common for the most nominated films there to reflect popular favorites, potentially jeopardizing the frontrunners.
Which director is in the lead?
The category for Best Director sees heightened uncertainty. Brady Corbet’s BAFTA and Globe wins for “The Brutalist” indicate potential strength, though historically, a single BAFTA win without additional accolades doesn’t bode well for Oscar chances.
By contrast, Sean Baker’s DGA and WGA wins for “Anora” provide him a solid standing. The interplay between Best Director and the Best Picture winner seems to set the stage for a showdown.
How does BAFTA’s Best Casting predict SAG Ensemble results?
Historically, BAFTA’s Best Casting winners do not align with the SAG Ensemble winners, signaling that this could continue.
With “Anora,” “A Complete Unknown,” and “Conclave” in the mix, SAG may favor “Wicked,” which holds multiple nominations. A BAFTA win for “Conclave” might elevate its status as a threat.
Is “Dune 2” a lock in the Sound category?
“Dune: Part Two” took home the BAFTA for Sound, but it’s important to consider that musicals and music biopics often overshadow in this category at the Oscars, challenging its presumed victory.
Finally, is “No Other Land” still the top documentary contender?
BAFTA awarded “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story,” which is absent from the Oscar nominations. This shifts the documentary landscape, indicating heightened competition.
As the Oscar night approaches, the predictions remain wide open. The next few weeks will be crucial as the industry navigates the surprises and uncertainties leading into the awards.
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Mikey Madison, Conclave and More
