Netflix is on the quest for prestigious recognition.
The streaming powerhouse has established the most lavish awards campaign in the film industry. With its billboards dotting the Sunset Strip, opulent screening rooms, and exclusive dinners for industry influencers, Netflix has amassed a decade’s worth of nominations for best picture. However, it has yet to secure the ultimate prize. Will this be the year it finally triumphs?
Recently at the Toronto International Film Festival, Netflix snagged the People’s Choice Award for “La Bola Negra,” a 160-minute Spanish-language film crafted by Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi (collectively known as Los Javis). This marks the first win for a Netflix film for TIFF’s audience award and the first non-English language film to clinch the title in over a decade.
Historically, of the last 16 People’s Choice Award winners, 14 went on to receive best picture nominations, with four emerging victorious: “The King’s Speech,” “12 Years a Slave,” “Green Book,” and “Nomadland.” The pertinent question is no longer if Netflix has a competitor, but rather if they can finally seal the victory. With nearly ten years in the running, Netflix has shown it can succeed in various ways yet falters when it comes to winning an Oscar.
“Roma” garnered ten nominations in 2018, securing awards for director and cinematography for Alfonso Cuarón, along with winning best international feature for Mexico, but it fell short to “Green Book” for best picture.
“The Power of the Dog” led the nominations in 2021 with 12, and while Jane Campion won for director, the streaming era’s first best picture win went to Apple’s “CODA,” which coincidently directed by Siân Heder, who also helmed this year’s People’s Choice runner-up, “Being Heumann.”
Edward Berger’s German-language “All Quiet on the Western Front” made history by winning seven BAFTAs and four Oscars in 2022, yet it ultimately lost the best picture award to “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
When Netflix focuses on international projects, the Academy typically expresses genuine interest, yet often categorizes this enthusiasm differently. The international feature award tends to be seen as a consolation, with South Korea’s “Parasite” being the only film to transcend into best picture acclaim.
Conversely, there’s an unfortunate title Netflix would rather forget.
“Emilia Pérez” entered the 97th Oscars with 13 nominations, setting a record for a non-English film. Unfortunately, controversies surrounding lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón’s social media past severely impacted the campaign, leading Netflix to distance itself from her as the Oscars approached.
“La Bola Negra” has the potential to redefine Netflix’s Oscar narrative.
This film, told in Spanish and depicting a Spanish narrative, is crafted by Spanish filmmakers focused on their community’s stories. Drawing inspiration from Federico García Lorca’s unfinished works and Alberto Conejero’s “La piedra oscura,” it explores the lives of three queer men at various historical junctures. Ambrossi has expressed that their aim was to create “the gayest war movie ever.”
Los Javis jointly received the director award at Cannes alongside “Fatherland” director Paweł Pawlikowski. Co-produced by Pedro Almodóvar’s El Deseo, the film features a star-studded cast including Penélope Cruz, Glenn Close, and up-and-coming talent Guitarricadelafuente. Additionally, it has been chosen as Spain’s submission for the international feature category.
Notably, Netflix is approaching this film differently from its previous contenders. It is set to debut in theaters on October 16 and will not stream until December 2, marking the longest exclusive theatrical window in the company’s history of 47 days. This indicates Netflix’s possible concession to the theater experience.
Nonetheless, this doesn’t guarantee a win.
Subtitles and a runtime of 160 minutes present challenges for voters screening films at home around the holidays. While “Oppenheimer” demonstrated that audiences are willing to invest time for a worthwhile narrative, it also boasted strong box office performance and resonated with viewers due to the narrative surrounding Christopher Nolan’s overdue recognition.
Critics have noted that the film’s ambition might exceed its execution, with some describing it as inconsistent. Historically, films with strong consensus tend to take home the best picture award.
It’s worth contemplating whether the Academy could acknowledge “La Bola Negra” in several categories while reserving the international feature award as a consolation, similar to how it handled “Roma” and “All Quiet on the Western Front.”
The stakes are high as Netflix strives to maintain its campaign momentum into January without peaking too early in September. After eight years of pursuing the coveted Oscar, can they finally achieve victory in Spanish?
Below are the latest predictions for the Academy Awards.
Best Picture
“The Debut” (A24)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Invite” (A24)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Wildwood” (Laika)
“You Can See Everything” (A24)
Director
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, “La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Martin McDonagh, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Christopher Nolan, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
Olivia Wilde, “The Invite” (A24)
Actor
Matt Damon, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
John Malkovich, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Pedro Pascal, “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
Andrew Scott, “Elsinore” (Focus Features)
John Turturro, “The Only Living Pickpocket in New York” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Actress
Marion Bailey, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
Sandra Hüller, “Fatherland” (Mubi)
Julianne Moore, “The Debut” (A24)
Inde Navarrette, “Obsession” (Focus Features)
Olivia Wilde, “The Invite” (A24)
Supporting Actor
Andrew Garfield, “Artificial” (Neon)
Paul Giamatti, “The Debut” (A24)
John Leguizamo, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Robert Pattinson, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Sam Rockwell, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, “The Invite” (A24)
Penélope Cruz, “La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Anne Hathaway, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Samantha Morton, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Kate O’Flynn, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
Original Screenplay
“The Debut” (A24) — Jesse Eisenberg
“Fjord” (Neon) — Cristian Mungiu
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Peter Gamble
“Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street) — Mike Leigh
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) — Martin McDonagh
Adapted Screenplay
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) — Brian K. Vaughan, Denis Villeneuve
“The Invite” (A24) — Rashida Jones and Will McCormack
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix) — Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, Alberto Conejero
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan
“Wildwood” (Laika) — Chris Butler
Casting
“Being Heumann” (Apple Original Films)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Elsinore” (Focus Features)
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Animated Feature
“Forgotten Island” (DreamWorks Animation)
“Ray Gunn” (Netflix)
“Tangles” (Independent Film Company)
“Toy Story 5” (Pixar)
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Production Design
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” (Netflix)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Cinematography
“Digger” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Costume Design
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Sense and Sensibility” (Focus Features)
Film Editing
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“The Invite” (A24)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Digger” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Werwulf” (Focus Features)
Sound
“Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Visual Effects
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Godzilla Minus Zero” (GKids)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” (Sony Pictures)
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Original Score
“Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Original Song
“Your God is Sleeping” from “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“By Any Means” from “By Any Means” (Paramount Pictures)
“This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from “The Debut” (A24)
“Let Me Sell You a Dream” from “Musk” (Bleecker Street)
“I Knew It, I Knew You” from “Toy Story 5” (Pixar)
Documentary Feature
“American Doctor” (Watermelon Pictures)
“Everest: The Other Side” (National Geographic)
“14th” (Netflix)
“Musk” (Bleecker Street)
“Once Upon a Time in Harlem” (Neon)
International Feature
“Fjord” from Romania (Neon)
“La Bola Negra” from Spain (Netflix)
“Minotaur” from France (Mubi)
“Possible Love” from South Korea (Netflix)
“Woman Unknown” from Denmark (U.S. Distributor TBD)
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Can ‘La Bola Negra’ Finally Win Netflix the Best Picture Oscar?
